Written by Pierre Olivier – 2016/08/12
The army, the credit, the communication : 2 out of 3 pillars of american domination are threatened. Rebuilding the US economic model will be at the heart of the debate for the next US presidential election on november 8 2016.
2 out of 3 pillars of American domination are threatened
1- The army
US army has a significant impact on …
Economy
Budget : 580 billions $.
1,5 millions soldiers
100 000 firms work with the army
The US army boosts industry and innovation : internet, GPS are US army’s inventions.
Dollar’s influence
Military bases located in 74 pays all over the world.
Ability to deploy soldiers anywhere anytime (49 international actions since 1900), which explains why $ is the strongest world currency.
But, over the last few years, wars have left troops and US government financially and mentally exhausted
Since Afghanistan and Iraq failures, US army has decided troop withdrawals policy.
2- The credit
US growth is based on consumption and credit because american people feel confident about the future
The French
The French use to save for years before consuming. The French savings rate is one of the highest in the world (15%).
The American
The American use to rise consumption by credit. This way has a positive impact on the whole economy. But they need to feel confident about the future (ability to pay off).
but the subprime crisis broke out this confidence
12% of American people move every year (20% in the 50’s)* and 44% think they will improve their standard living in 2014 (lowest score in the General Social Survey history).
* T Noah – Washington Monthly
3- The communication
The US reigns over the communication throughout the world
Main firms are located in California
A pillar stronger than ever
The way to explain the world is mostly an american point of view (Internet, movies, TV …)
Example : between 2011 and 2014, US medias spread the Euro Zone was going to bankrupt. They tried to protect Dollar against Euro (potential threat to replace Dollar as the international currency). The Euro represented 0% of World trade in 1999 and 39% in 2010.
But …
Everything is still possible
Shale gaz has divided by 4 energy prices and the US are the first oil producer in 2014 before Saudi Arabia and Russia. 2 main impacts :
Reindustrialisation
US reindustrialization is an offshoot of natural gas boom : 2 millions new jobs in the US.
Source : rapport Price
Middle East is not a priority anymore
Maybe the US – Saudi Arabia pact (Quincy pact – 1945) should come to an end
This agreement should guarantee a cheap and abundant energy supply for the US in exchange for military protection for Saudi Arabia.
Geopolitics impact will probably come …
The competition between Clinton and Trump
US economy future is the real challenge of the next american election on the november 8 2016.